GF Securities: adjust investment ideas make "regulation time difference" sina finance App: live a major change on-line blogger to tutor Jiepan listen to expert selection on shares of GF Niugu Lin hegemony strategy match Chen Jie Zheng Kai Cao Liulong 1 this week, this week the policy point of view are: 1, since the beginning of the 30 year cumulative City real estate the sales growth of 31.8%, year-on-year growth rate continued to fall; 2, the domestic industrial products were mixed, overseas commodities to fall; 3, the financial balance of the two last week rose 0.4% to 903 billion yuan, the size of the non net reduction of 6 billion 860 million yuan this week. This week, the market is relatively boring, we are complaining about the previous investment ideas have been "no money", the next big idea to invest in the adjustment? On the above issues, our view is: 1, in the first two years, A-share market is a more important way to make money is to earn the expected difference in A". In 2013 since the new government came to power, and vigorously promote the reform and transformation of the industry and the stock market investors to reform whether can obtain the expected results are different, so there are a lot of "expected difference". With the reform of the transition is expected later investors experienced "never believe to believe", "from divergence to consistent" change process, repair the expected poor has created a profitable line (such as gem, FTA, The Belt and Road, etc. Therefore, in the reform of state-owned enterprises) the first two years of the bull market, we often make the "reform of the expected difference". 2, and this year, a major change in the policy environment is in the process of promoting reform, obviously involved in more administrative regulation. For example, when promoting the "supply side reforms", stressed the need to create a stable "demand side", therefore the government infrastructure investment has obvious signs of overweight, but once the economic infrastructure after steady, and may reduce the government investment; and as to accelerate to capacity, the implementation of the executive order the production of the coal industry, but once the production led to price hikes in the future, and may allow the "advanced production capacity". In addition to the above areas, in fact, this year in the capital market and the real estate market and other areas, there are signs of increased administrative regulation. 3, when the administrative regulation involved in the reform process, the stock market has basically lost the opportunity to make big money by the expected difference in reform. The reason is that the expected difference in reform can make a lot of money, is that the reform to bring everyone’s imagination is unlimited. But once the administrative regulation involved in the reform process, in fact, for everyone to create a desired "on the top and bottom under the stable, imagination open, nature is not to earn money. 4, the next can only rely on "regulation time difference" to make a little money — local government behavior may lead to administrative regulation "overshoot", between "overshoot" and "correction" will have a "time difference", can only rely on the "time difference" to earn money. The following is a case study of infrastructure and coal to explain this: (1) the case of infrastructure: the central government only hopes to expand the basic theory