The Milky Way Futures: Coke downside risk, a contradiction between long and short Market Review 2016 6-8 month, the current coking coke, a strong rise in resonance. Jm1701 contract rose up to 250 yuan, or about $40%, J1701 contract rose by $400 tons, or up to 50%. The past two months, is the most powerful coking coke varieties of black chain, fully reflects the tight supply of the state. In 2016, the impact of environmental administrative capacity to limit production, to reduce the supply of black industry chain has become increasingly obvious, low inventory superimposed peak demand expected boost futures futures rose strong rise, pulling the spot price, the current implementation of resonance, Jm1701 and J1701 record high. In the short term, black chain tight supply and demand pattern remains unchanged, the spot still maintain a strong reason; from the long-term perspective, the macroeconomic downside concerns larger, and after 2017, the decline in demand is a high probability event, effective and sustained supply capacity to the end are in doubt, in the long black goods the end is not optimistic. With the industry chain related commodity prices rose, the short and long end of the black industry increasingly fierce contradiction. In order to measure the current price of each link, black chain can achieve a high profit, without administrative intervention, the supply will be very full, however, coal limited production, environmental inspection and exhibition activities affect the yield of normal delivery; since 2016, black industry chain has been in a tight supply and demand stimulus mismatch., coking coal coke is more fully, the price rose far exceeded expectations. Figure 1: now the price of coking coal                             Figure 2: now the price of coke source: after the Milky Way futures, wind information at the end of April coal prices callback, and maintain a strong spot outside, discount continue to expand. The beginning of June, coking coal, coke prices rebounded gradually into a premium and discount repair. Recently, outside the coking coal, or more, futures premium slightly again. Two, coking coal coke production and supply of 1, the total supply of coking coal production to shrink, the decline in domestic coking coal production is greatly influenced by policy, the first half of the year yields continue to decline, while the second half of the supply side reform no signs of weakening, domestic production to maintain a low probability. The first half of 2016 coking coal production continued to decline, which in June 5, coking coal production was 34 million 620 thousand tons and 35 million 890 thousand tons, an increase of -18.73% and -19.17% respectively, the first half of the year production of 25 million 747 thousand tons (or -10.8%). The first half of the year to capacity is not complete, the execution of the second half of the policy may increase, and after the implementation of policies of coking coal prices rose much higher than the production rate, from the perspective of local government, not only to complete administrative tasks, and improve the local income, continue to implement the initiative to improve from the individual point of view,.相关的主题文章: