Against new underground banks rely on deepen the reform of the exchange rate Sina App: Live on-line blogger to tutor Sina Hong Kong APP: real time market exclusive reference stocks also worth the investment? What’s the problem? Where is the future? Sina Hong Kong stocks launched "Hong Kong stocks are not attractive" big discussion, with a rational and constructive attitude, welcome to pay attention to Hong Kong stocks, people concerned about the capital market, together with Hong Kong stocks for advice and suggestions, and conspiracy of Hong Kong stock market tomorrow. Please to hkstock_biz@sina. Against new underground banks rely on deepening the reform of the exchange rate of Shi Chenyu’s recently released the latest data show that as of September 2016, the national underground has uncovered 56 cases of major cases, involving 14 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, involving more than trillion yuan. Since May 2014, China has experienced a sustained and normalized outflow of capital. There are reasonable factors for the net outflow of capital in china. The revival and revival plan of manufacturing innovation centered on European and American countries leads to the outflow of competitive capital in china. According to the latest report of the Boston Consulting Group, the United States has the largest 25 export economies in the United States, and the manufacturing cost of the United States is close to that of developing countries such as china. In October 21st, China State security stated that it did not limit foreign funds to be remitted. In addition, capital output constitutes another motive force of China’s capital outflow. From September to 2016, China’s foreign direct investment reached 134 billion 200 million US dollars, representing an increase of 53.7% over the same period, representing a splendid switch from trade and manufacturing power to industry and capital power in China, representing an increase of 1 over the same period. Guard against the currency exchange rate adjustment is caused by abnormal capital outflows to make China. The exchange rate between us dollar and RMB is the two interest margin or arbitrage space, which strongly stimulated the outflow of speculative capital, while underground banks have always been the main flow channel of arbitrage capital. However, unlike in previous years, the scale of the potential Chinese household sector capital outflows as "hot money" out of fear, is turned into the biggest employers underground. As far as China’s family sector is concerned, the demand for capital flows, such as migration and international education, is expanding day by day. The Chinese have become the most important source of investment migration in many countries. At the same time, the so-called "assets in the outside, debt" investment strategy makes huge amounts of assets are through a variety of legal or illegal channels to invest overseas. This also provides the living space for all kinds of underground banks. For example, there are 5 million dollar swap lines households per person per year, the purchase of foreign exchange purchase authority is limited, higher threshold, exchange procedures for personal inconvenience, not in immigration, foreign investment and other economic activities in timely and conveniently to meet the demand for foreign exchange, exchange type underground banks should be born. The bank makes the purchase limit only, these personal funds on behalf of a variety of cross-border flows, resulting in the national financial order disorder, payments statistics distortion, seriously affect the effectiveness of supervision. Therefore, to prevent and combat illegal foreign exchange activities such as underground banks has become an important task of foreign exchange management. But obviously, to curb the spread of underground banks, if only on the surface blow, regardless of the surface

打击新型地下钱庄靠深化汇率改革 新浪财经App:直播上线 博主一对一指导 新浪港股APP:实时行情 独家内参   港股还值不值得投资?出现了什么问题?未来出路在哪里?新浪港股发起“港股还有没有吸引力”大讨论,以理性、建设性的态度,欢迎关注港股、关注资本市场的人士,一起为港股建言献策,共谋港股市场的明天。来稿请至hkstock_biz@sina 。   打击新型地下钱庄靠深化汇率改革   史晨昱   近日,外管局发布最新数据显示,截至2016年9月,全国已破获地下钱庄大案要案56起,涉及14个省、区、市,涉案金额逾万亿元人民币。   自2014年5月以来中国经历持续性、常态化的资本流出。中国处于资本净流出的格局有合理因素。欧美国家以创新为核心的制造业重振和复兴计划从而引致中国竞争性资本流出。按照波士顿咨询集团的最新调查报告,全球最大的25个出口经济体中,美国的制造业综合成本已接近中国等发展中国家。10月21日,中国外管局明确表示,并不限制外资资金汇出。此外,资本输出构成了中国资本流出的另一个动能。2016年1至9月份,中国对外直接投资高达1342亿美元,同比增长53.7%,代表的是中国由贸易与制造大国向产业与资本强国的精彩切换。   中国要警惕和提防的是因货币汇率调整引起的非正常资本流出的兴风作浪。美元与人民币汇率撑开的是二者息差或者说是套利空间,由此强烈刺激了投机资本流出,而地下钱庄一直是套利资本的主要流动渠道。然而与前些年不同的是,中国家庭部门资本流出的潜在规模恐不亚于“热钱”流出,正演变为地下钱庄的最大顾主。就中国家庭部门而言,移民、国际化教育等资金流动需求日益膨胀。中国人已经成为诸多国家最主要的投资移民来源,与此同时,所谓“资产在外、负债在内”的投资策略使得巨量的资产正通过各种合法或非法渠道投向海外。这也为各类地下钱庄提供了生存空间。例如,家庭部门每人每年有5万美元的换汇额度,购汇权限有限,购汇门槛较高,兑汇手续不便,对于个人在移民、对外投资等经济活动中的外汇需求不能及时、快捷地满足,汇兑型地下钱庄应运而生。该类钱庄使得购汇额度限制名存实亡,这些个人资金以各种名义实现跨境流动,造成国家金融秩序紊乱,收支统计数据失真,严重影响监管有效性。   因此,预防与打击地下钱庄等外汇违法活动已上升为外汇管理的一项重要任务。但显然,遏制地下钱庄泛滥,如果仅在表面上打击,不仅会使打击活动落入运动式怪圈,更会让打击活动陷入“割韭菜式”的恶性循环。面对汇兑型等新型地下钱庄,最有效、最根本的办法还在于深化汇率市场改革。   美联储通过美元基本利率的调控影响全球资本流动,进而成为人民币汇率升贬的最重要的对手方。美元基准利率逐步回归长期均衡水平,几乎是毫无疑问的。对人民币而言,这意味着未来1到3年都必须要直接承受由此带来的压力。这也就为汇兑型等新型地下钱庄的生长提供了长期土壤。   中国家庭部门资本流动速度在很大程度上取决于国内居民对人民币前景的信心以及中国资本项目开放步伐的快慢。从我国经济发展的动力和前景来看,人民币具有保持币值稳定的经济基础。而人民币汇率预期波动的根源在于人民币汇率制度安排的僵化。人民币中间汇率形成机制并不透明,呈现僵化状态。人民币加入SDR货币篮子后,汇率市场化也是人民币国际化的必要条件。   鉴于目前中国居民存款中美元占比约3%,因此中国家庭资产投资多样化远没有完成。波士顿咨询报告估算:到2020年中国个人境外资产配置将新增至13万亿。目前中国家庭部门资本流出的正式渠道有限,包括通过合格境内机构投资者项目(QDII)和沪港通项目。下阶段,应不断放开个人跨境投资限制。如扩大QDII投资范围,推进深港通等,让符合条件的国内投资者更加自由地在更广阔的海外投资市场中实现资产优化配置。此外,建立民众用汇遴选机制,对民众投资移民、留学等大额用汇进行备案审查,把好关口,有条件、适当取消限额管理。(编辑 张立伟) 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: